andreswd It has been a very long time since I covered shares of MSA Safety (NYSE:MSA). In fact, it was 2017 when I believed that there was not much safety for the protective gear provider at prevailing levels following the Globe Manufacturing acquisition. In the seven years which followed, an $80 stock more than doubled, but the same applied to the wider market as well. The company has continued to add to a great long-term track record, demonstrating on solid topline sales growth, some margin expansion, while maintaining balance sheet integrity. While shares are still not cheap at a mid-twenty times earnings multiple, I am impressed with the long-term track record, and therefore I am willing to buy shares on dips, or a prolonged period of stagnation. I recognize that this quality play deserves some kind of premium, just not this premium. A Quick Look Back Back in 2017, MSA Safety generated some $1.15 billion in sales from the production and distribution of safety products. This includes fall protection, breathing apparatus, fire helmets, among others. This equipment is used in mining, extreme sports, but also among fire and other rescue workers, of course. The name of the company, Mine Safety Appliances, refers to the original key market of the company, that of providing safety products used in mining. At the time, the company posted operating margins in the mid-teens and despite the sound positioning, the topline growth in the years before was not too impressive. Nonetheless, investors have been awarding every higher multiples to the business. Trading at $83 in 2017, shares commanded a 26-27 times adjusted earnings multiple, while leverage ratios were reported around 2 times. Picking Up The Performance Since 2017, shares of MSA have continued to make progress, as shares rose to the $150 mark in 2021, doubling in a time period of just four years. What followed was a period of stagnation as shares fell to the lower $100s in 2022, rose to a high of $195 in April of this year, to now trade at $178. In February, MSA posted a solid 17% increase in 2023 sales to $1.79 billion, with sales having grown more than 50% from 2017. Adjusted operating profits rose by a solid 37% last year to $398 million, resulting in operating margins of around 22%. This is up from levels seen around the mid-teens in 2017. Adjusted earnings of $278 million came in at $7.03 on a per-share basis, as the company has kept on delivering posting solid sales growth, with ever-increasing margins. With earnings posted just north of $7 per share, earnings multiples come in around 26 times, all while net debt of $455 million approximated EBITDA. The business has been well-diversified, with firefighter safety and detection each responsible for a sales contribution in the mid-thirty percentages, complemented by a smaller industrial PPE business. In April, MSA reported a 4% increase in first quarter sales to $413 million, as continued margin expansion resulted in adjusted earnings being reported up 18% to $1.61 per share, up twenty-five cents from the year before, all while net debt kept constant at 1.0 times EBITDA. The company is sticking to its full-year outlook, seeing mid-single digit sales growth this year. If earnings might increase towards $8 per share, the company trades at 22-23 times forward earnings, all while leverage is very modest. Note that further insight into the numbers reveals the further potential which the business has. The Americas segment is responsible for about 70% of sales, with adjusted operating margins reported at 29% in the first quarter. The international operations are smaller, but moreover, much less profitable, with margins of 11% being a fraction of those reported on the home front. In May, MSA announced its 54th consecutive divine increase, raising it by 8.5% to $0.51 per share on a quarterly basis, or $2.04 on an annual basis. This results in a yield just surpassing the 1.0% yield, even though the track record is quite impressive. The company furthermore announced a $200 million buyback program, at these levels sufficient to buy back just over a million shares, reducing the outstanding shares base of 39 million and change in a small way. Guidance Remains Solid In May, the company furthermore outlined some plans to grow the business further in the coming years, as the company laid out some modest 2028 targets. Sales are seen between $2.1 and $2.3 billion that year, which at the midpoint suggests some 22% revenue growth from 2023, which per annum works down to about 5% based on a four-year time window. Adjusted operating margins are seen up to 23.5-25.0% of sales, which should work down to earnings between $10 and $11 per share. If this becomes reality, which looks quite reasonable, I see no reason why shares should not trade at, or above $250 per share. Of course, this assumes that MSA is awarded the same long-term premium which based on past performance has been well reserved. There are some small potential hiccups, of course, including the fact that MSA will undergo a CEO transition here. Nonetheless, I am not too worried about this, as orders accelerated throughout the quarter, and even in April. All in all, MSA remains a solid play as the 2028 targets look quite realistic and attainable. Given where shares trade, I consider them to trade around fair value, as a period of prolonged stagnation or pullback towards the $150 mark (seen last autumn) will definitely trigger my buying interest.